Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast November 15, 2018

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest A wet mess moves over the state today. A large part of the state likely sees a rain-snow mix, or mostly rain. Snow totals will be limited to a coating to 2 or 3 inches over about 60% of Ohio.  A large part of the state sees snow or at least a rain-snow mix today, and temperatures will be warm enough to promote many areas more into the rain-snow mix category through this afternoon. However, there will be a pretty good dry slot working into the state late this evening, and should allow action to taper off, but we wont truly see all precipitation done here until closer sunrise tomorrow. While snow accumulations may not be over the top, liquid equivalent totals will still end up in the range of a few hundredths to .7”. with the heaviest action in southern and southwestern parts of Ohio. Moisture falls over about 90% of the state. Even though we don’t see as much snow potential as our neighbors to the west (Indiana), we still would look to describe today’s action as a “wintry mix”. Could we exceed these snow thoughts for the day today? Definitely….it basically comes down to temperatures! Just 2-3 degrees colder through the day could add another 1-2 inches or more to snow totals, at the expense of rain. So…it will be a very interesting day. Not much harvest going on to be sure. The map at right gives an outlook at total snow from this event. We should be dry in all areas tomorrow to finish the week, and we should see a mix of clouds and sun. We are bringing in more clouds for the weekend, as a weak clipper like disturbance still wants to move out of the northern plains tomorrow and move across the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. The system is dying as it arrives, and that is the reason we really are looking at only clouds from it here, while it does put down some minor snows farther west in northern IA and southern MN tomorrow. But, the air behind this little system is significantly colder. So, colder air, with plenty of clouds…it would not take much to wring out a flurry or two. We are going to take another look at the weekend again tomorrow morning and finalize the forecast, but for now, even though we are still saying mostly dry, we will grant that it will not be as nice Saturday and Sunday as tomorrow over the state. We get better sunshine and more dry weather for Monday through Thursday. That is an extension of 1 day over our previous forecast, as we think we can squeeze out a pretty nice weather day for Thanksgiving Day. Clouds may be on the increase late in the afternoon, but we are pushing all precipitation back into Friday. Rains start in the morning and continue all day Friday, bringing a few hundredths to half an inch. The extended forecast is a little drier this morning, with less moisture developing for the 25th and 26th. We won’t completely remove a chance of rain in that time frame, but we are seeing a better focus on moisture development with the second chance we were looking at…around the 28th and 29th. In fact, some models are suggesting heavy rains pushing into the 30th as well. However, those solutions also are predicated on some form of tropical involvement, with moisture coming out of the western gulf near the TX gulf coast late in the month and lifting up across the Mississippi Valley into our neck of the woods. We think that is rather overdone, and as such, we are going to keep a much more conservative forecast for the period with only light rains for the 28th and 29th. We are looking for a few hundredths to .25” there. Divergent models and data this morning mean we are going to leave our forecast alone for the most part and let some of the uncertainty settle out.last_img read more

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